32 Comments
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Joseph Sserwadda's avatar

While I do not disagree with what you say, I would like to make a clarification. Treasury bonds do not compound and accumulate your money to pay it back at the end of term, say 20 years, with original investment plus compound interest earned over those 20 years. Instead, you are paid the interest accumulated I.e coupon payment every end of quarter. There’s currently no mechanism I know of that allows to leave it in the treasury. At the end of the term of the loan, you only earn the original investment whichever way calculated.

I think this clarification helps to bring clarity to those wishing to invest in this product to earn the huge lump sums you mention in your article at the end of term. And it probably is the real reason why some investors think it makes more tangible sense when the amount invested is substantial, as the quarterly coupon payment can then be used to solve cash flow issues or be invested elsewhere. When it’s say 15% of shs.100,000- posted to your account, it’s hard to figure out what next. Thanks

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Kakande Alex's avatar

I have tried to explain this, but let me ask you this.

If I buy a 10 million bond today, and it pays me 700K in July, and I use that 700K to buy another bond or that exact bond in July , is that compounding or not?

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Kapere Lugard's avatar

The article incorrectly assumes that interest rates will always stay at 17 percent (or whatever), which I find rather disingenuous. We all know the reason why rates are currently high: upcoming elections. Once those come and go, and all the perceived, election-related risks among investors subside, there's actually a good chance that the government will slash those rates again, perhaps even significantly. Look at what Kenya did after the government secured funding from outside sources, something that helped greatly allay some of the supposed, impending default jitters among investors. So, while what you explain is essentially compounding, I think you probably need to add an important caveat for your readers, or prospective investors: the final numbers could be significantly lower (or higher, depending on the direction of the rates) than what is calculated .

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Twesigye jordan's avatar

Forgetting the ugx inflation per annum wc goes around 5 to percent and all this affects the return

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Twesigye jordan's avatar

Here your not dealing in bonds but bills and for better way goo for unit trust or investment clubs or mutual funds that do interest compounding .because bonds won't allow to invest today and tomorrow

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Nancy Mbekeka's avatar

What next is that they would continue reinvesting the 15% and continue financing the bond everytime they make extra cash ….this considering cashflow issues are none existent

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Andrew Muhimbise Atiki's avatar

Nice.

Thank you for this

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Kakande Alex's avatar

Thank you sir.

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Sharfique K's avatar

Nice one brother. Thank you. This can make a nice piece in the same newspaper that the article in question appeared in. Ever considered writing for a newspaper?

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Kakande Alex's avatar

Thank you Brother. The Article I'm told it has reached the editorial team, hope the can publish it.

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Sharfique K's avatar

Would be a shame not to but I wouldn't be supprised if editor chooses not to publicly discredit one of their own

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Dr Henry Clarke Kisembo PhD's avatar

Cheers brother

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Kakande Alex's avatar

Thank you Doctor.

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Anna Lugonvu's avatar

Thank you

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Juma's avatar

Do those bonds and trusts need anything like technical analysis?

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Catherine Nakanwagi's avatar

“Better read than never“ reading this abit late However The way I use this info is absolutely up to me ! But good staff @Alex

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Captain Matthew's avatar

Thank you for taking the time to share your insights about treasury bonds. Your knowledge and clarity are truly inspiring and have broadened my understanding. I also appreciate your mention of cryptocurrency—it's a fascinating area, and I understand why it might seem challenging to approach. That said, I would love to learn more about your perspective on it whenever you're ready to share. Your expertise would undoubtedly be invaluable. Thank you once again for your generosity in sharing your knowledge!

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Juma's avatar

Sir if you don't know well financial markets trading... Please don't go for crypto. Save your self

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Humphrey's avatar

Very educative and informative, thanks.

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Nancy Mbekeka's avatar

What an outcry …… thankyou for explaing it all so simply Alex .

Now to use the same language and put all my friends and family members on!

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Bruce “Kiremire” Tusiimire's avatar

Thank you for this deep analysis

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Akijungu's avatar

Your articles are so comprehensive I always feel the need to bookmark them for revision. Thank you for the great work you're doing.

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Sharfique K's avatar

A 10 and 20yr bond auction is coming up next week 22nd January. Usually you provide us with the auction notice. Did I miss it or...?

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Mayemba Douglas's avatar

Thank you

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Denis's avatar

Thank you Mr Alex, this is very well Elaborated and enlightening.

I guess the Article Writer Lacked this Expertise Knowledge on the Subject.

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Lynda Nabayiinda Were's avatar

Good feedback to the article backed up by numbers and simulations.

There is no one type of investment for only a certain amount of money.

With any investment just like anything in life, commitment, patience and playing the long game yields great results.

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